Polyester: Contracts For Arbitrage Opportunities In The Near And Far Months

Reporters learned that, thanks to the increasing warming of buying insurance by industrial customers, PTA futures have accumulated a large number of counterparty funds in recent months, and the interest in speculative funds in the far month contracts is also quite high.

In particular, the frequent and dramatic changes in the price gap between the close and distant contracts brought opportunities for intertemporal arbitrage and further attracted capital into the market.

Looking back, in the first half of 5, in the first half of the month, the PTA production alliance cut short of production, resulting in a shortage of goods in the short term. PTA spot and futures contracts rose sharply in recent months. The difference between the 1501 contract and the 1505 contract price once expanded to more than 200 yuan / ton, but then with the gradual collapse of the alliance, the price gap between them began to narrow.

At present, the difference between the 1501 futures contract and the 1505 contract of PTA futures has expanded again, which has rapidly expanded from 232 yuan / ton in the early November to 28 yuan / ton.

In the future, with the implementation of the reduction plan,

The price difference between the futures and the near future still has the possibility of further enlarging.

"

The expansion has brought arbitrage opportunities to a certain extent.

Everbright futures analyst Li Zhoulei explained that the recent PTA spot price rebounded, thereby driving futures contracts stronger in recent months.

At the same time, after the PTA price hit 5300 yuan / ton lows, the market was expected to raise prices again for the production enterprises, and spot prices rebounded nearly 300 yuan / ton from the bottom.

"As futures 1501 contracts rebounded more strongly than spot, futures continued to rise in cash, and now arbitrage funds began to buy goods in the spot market."

He said.

In Wang Guangqian's view, the spot trend strongly supported the futures contract price in the near future, while the far month contract faced the pressure of overcapacity, showing relatively weak performance.

"Downstream

If manufacturers are concerned about the supply of raw materials under the current peak season, they can do the interseason arbitrage operation to buy January throw May.

This not only solves the problem of shortage of raw materials that may be faced years ago, but also partially avoids the risk of falling raw material prices later. "

Wang Guangqian said.

It is worth mentioning that under the background of the current energy and chemical industry overcapacity and weak demand, the reverse premium between the futures contract and the far month contract has become the norm.

In the same situation, the fluctuation of PTA's near and far contract spreads is often more intense.

Guo Jiaqi, manager of Ruifeng energy and Chemical Industry Department of new lake, told reporters that at present, the fluctuation of PTA spreads will present a more short-term and more intense development trend. "After the 1501 contract trend falls and the price difference converges in December, we can grasp arbitrage opportunities of more than 1501 contracts and 1505 empty contracts".