Weak Demand, Zheng Cotton'S Long-Term Weak Pattern Is Hard To Change

< p > because of the domestic a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton > /a > unlimited storage for two consecutive years, the trend of Zheng cotton policy is obvious. However, based on the policy of purchasing and storage, it has the characteristics of "protecting the short and not protecting the long". Under the background of weak demand, Zheng cotton's long-term weak trend pattern is hard to change, but the short and medium term cotton price will oscillate in the cracks between the many factors and the loose supply of the basic supply.

< /p >

< p > < strong > circulation cotton resources shortage < /strong > < /p >

< p > as of January 6th, the total volume of cotton inspection in Xinjiang exceeded 6 million 110 thousand tons, of which, the volume of public inspection in Xinjiang exceeded 4 million 120 thousand tons. The annual output of the country is estimated to be about 7 million tons.

Although the output of cotton is relatively high, the market demand is small, and the state has taken measures to stabilize the market. As of January 8th, the total amount of temporary storage and storage of cotton has been 5 million 360 thousand tons in 2012/2013, of which 2 million 400 thousand tons have been accumulated in Xinjiang, and 1 million 680 thousand tons have been accumulated in the mainland. The backbone enterprises have reached 1 million 270 thousand tons, and the number of storage and storage has exceeded 76% of the annual output.

< /p >

< p > recently, the market focus has been focused on dumping and storage. There is an inevitable pressure on the spot market. The 20400 yuan / ton high storage price is standing in a tight position. In this connection, cotton enterprises are more reluctant to keep the cotton market. The estimated reserves will exceed 5 million 500 thousand tons or even 6 million tons.

Therefore, if the imported cotton is not considered, the domestic circulation of cotton resources will be about 100 to 1 million 500 thousand tons, and the cotton price will be good in the short and medium term.

< /p >

< p > < strong > policies and regulations result in shortage of new and old cotton warehouse receipts < /strong > < /p >

< p > domestic cotton purchase and storage price is the highest price in the world. Cotton sales channel is the first choice in 2012/2013, and the new cotton warehouse receipts in the futures market are limited.

At the same time, the relevant rules of Zhengshang clearly stipulate that if cotton warehouse receipts in 2011/2012 did not be delivered on Zheng cotton 1301 contract, they would be canceled in March 2013, forcing cotton warehouse receipts to flow out of the futures market.

Since September 2013, China has implemented the new cotton standard. The cotton produced in 2012 will be cancelled in September 13, 2013. The CF1311 contract will begin to implement the new contract standard and business rules. In September 14, 2013, the cotton warehouse receipt forecast for 2013 will begin.

Domestic purchasing and storage policy and the rules of Zheng Shang have resulted in shortage of warehouse goods and short and medium term support price.

< /p >

< p > < strong > throwing storage to prevent "turning cotton", and the period price pressure is limited < /strong > < /p >.

< p > dumping and storage policy is gradually coming to an end. According to the relevant regulations, the new dumping policy has something in common with the policy of throwing and storing in September 2012, that is to prevent "turning cotton". This shows that the future throwing cotton can only be used for < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" target= "_blank" > spinning "/a" instead of buying and selling, which has limited pressure on the futures market.

< /p >

< p > there is news that in order to meet the demand of textile enterprises for cotton use, the state will launch a new round of reserve cotton throwing and storage in January 14th.

The quantity of dumping and storage is approved to be two months for cotton textile enterprises, with an estimated quantity of 100 to 1 million 500 thousand tons. The ratio of quotas and dumping and storage is 3:1, and the estimated quota is 30 to 500 thousand tons, and the dumping price is estimated at 19000 yuan / ton.

Zheng cotton has responded to the news of throwing and storing. Once the policy of dumping and storage is implemented, Zheng cotton will probably reproduce the trend of the stock market in September 2012.

< /p >

< p > < strong > domestic high storage and suppression cotton price is < /strong > < /p >.

< p > according to the global cotton supply and demand forecast released by the US Department of agriculture in December 2012, the global cotton inventories in 2012/2013 reached a new high level. The end of December 2012 cotton inventory reached 17 million 340 thousand tons, of which China's final inventory was 8 million 190 thousand tons, the domestic high price was collected, and the main production Bank of foreign cotton was pferred to China.

From this we can see that cotton demand still can not see signs of obvious improvement, high storage and long-term suppression of cotton prices rebound height.

< /p >

< p > the cotton industry chain has a backlog of contradictions, and the cotton and cotton industrial and commercial cotton stocks are at a low level, while the yarn and cloth products inventory is high.

Demand is weak, cotton raw materials are mainly used in accordance with the way of buying, and industrial chain products are mainly inventory.

Although the fundamentals are weak, the relevant cotton policies and rules have changed the pattern of weakness in the short term, and the price will oscillate in the cracks between the many factors and the loose supply of basic supply.

< /p >

< p > operation, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > ZHENG Mian < /a > long term weakness remains unchanged. The 1305 contract before the Spring Festival is likely to replicate the trend of 1301 contracts, and low absorption is the main concern, focusing on the first pressure level of 19500 yuan / ton.

< /p >