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How To Deal With &Nbsp?

2011/10/21 16:20:00 35

In the middle of October, the original "silver ten" did not arrive on schedule, and the cold wave struck not only the weather but also the textile industry this year.

Now, the macroeconomic environment is declining, the raw material market is also falling, the inventory of textile enterprises is beginning to rise, the terminal consumption is suppressed, and all kinds of bad factors are entangling the fabric market. Can the fabric market tolerate such repeated setbacks and let "silver ten" finally "appear"?

Macro face: from feast to black hole

The author prefers to view the macro trend.

Pessimism

。

On the one hand, the European debt crisis has only partially been digested and has not been solved at all.

Although some countries and regions have issued some measures to save the market, the external market has rebounded.

But this brief relief has not eased the market, and there is still a possibility of a recurrence in the future.

On the other hand, the international trade frictions are intensifying, which is also a "plus one" for the recovery of the economy.

The European debt crisis continues to ferment, and European market demand is obviously "shrinking", which has more and more obvious impact on the export industry.

Because China's textile industry "threshold" is relatively low, the technology differentiation is big, the industry internal competition is intense.

In addition, coupled with the impact of exchange rate factors, this has a greater impact on the textile foreign trade market. Now, the US dollar to the RMB exchange rate from 6.49 to 6.36, and depreciated by nearly 2% in just three months, which means that many Chinese enterprises have little profit in exporting to the outside world.

Foreign market economy is depressed, and domestic market funds are also very tight.

According to the current situation, the scale of loans is still shrinking. Now CPI is down, but there is no turning point yet.

Before the sharp fall in CPI, monetary policy was still "slim", which made some small and medium-sized textile enterprises more passive in the market.

Hesitate

Not yet.

Ingredients: from singing to moaning.

This year's raw material market has also entered a season of "Kim Gu is not gold, silver is ten silver."

Since the National Day holiday, the raw material market has stopped the proactive trend in the early stage.

Polyester market is weakening now. In the near future, the FDY50D/24F six month acceptance price in Shengze market is 16700 yuan / ton, and the bright FDY40D/24F price is 16200 yuan, which is 200-300 yuan lower than the beginning of the month, and the polyester market quotation in Taicang market has also declined. The FDY50D/24F cash quotation is 16000 yuan / ton, or 2%.

Zhejiang market also did not get rid of this channel, and manufacturers' quotations continued to weaken.

In addition to the weakening of polyester raw material prices, the cotton market has continued to fall.

Since the announcement of the state's temporary purchase and storage policy, cotton has become a "chicken ribs" for cotton traders. From the Zheng cotton index, the volume has continued to shrink after entering September. At that time, millions of hands to the present about one hundred thousand hands, the market is "miserable and miserable", whether it is cotton farmers or cotton enterprises.

Quotation

They are all very confused.

Fabric: from everywhere to rarely asked

This year's fabric market is also "twists and turns".

Originally spinning enterprises have great confidence in the market in the second half of the year, and think that the second quarter of the off-season will usher in the fabric everywhere, but affected by many factors, the fabric market in this quarter is slightly "quiet".

From the perspective of the fabric market, the sales of the original best-selling nylon fabrics are not as good as before. According to some manufacturers, although the performance is acceptable, the price is not up to much, some businesses are still selling down, and the supply exceeds demand.

According to the current raw material cost accounting, the price of 380T nylon, which is the best seller in the market, has been flat since October. The price in the market has been around 6 yuan, and the profit has been reduced by about 3% with the latest polyester price.

Along with the cool weather, the composite fabric is available in the market, such as suede composite fabric.

Judging from the market situation of lining materials, the rate of production and sale of plain materials is still high.

As the price of polyester raw materials in the upstream is down, the price of the products will also decline, but the possibility of a larger decline is unlikely.

To sum up, the fabric market is still in place.

Shock

The downturn in the external macro environment will continue to envelop the textile industry. The foreign trade market is under pressure and demand is suppressed, further inhibiting the domestic market.

Capital circulation has become the key point of market recovery.

Therefore, the author believes that this year's fabric market "silver ten" arrival is somewhat difficult, and the market may be further weakened.