The Futures Market Dropped &Nbsp In Early Trading, And Cotton Remained Strong.

Early Tuesday, the domestic futures market generally fell high, metal

cotton

Because cotton production has been cut for two consecutive years, and this year, the possibility of easing the contradiction between supply and demand of the market is relatively small. It is expected that by the end of the year, it will continue to rise under the impetus of the domestic cotton gap.

With the gradual warming of the downstream market, it will be the time node for cotton prices to rise in the first half of March (currently estimated to be around 10 days).

Because of the great difference in cotton quality in the last year, the quality of real estate cotton was poor, and cotton grade 3 or above was lower than that in previous years.

Therefore, after the market has warmed up, the increase of high-grade cotton will be significantly higher than that of low grade cotton.

This is also conducive to Zheng cotton's rise.

It is estimated that zhengmian 1109 will once again reach or surpass the high level of 34870 yuan / ton in the early stage after the market starts.

For medium and long term customers, it is recommended to set up positions below 31000.

Next year, global cotton will be oversupplied for the first time in 6 years, and there will be downward pressure on potential prices.

At present, cotton prices are at a record high level. In the process of operation, we need to pay close attention to the weather conditions, operate flexibly, choose the machine to close the positions, and avoid the downside risks of next year's prices.

Recently, the turmoil in Libya has become a new opportunity for soaring international oil prices.

But it is worth noting that in the summer of 2009, one of the world's largest oil producers, Iran, had a large-scale anti-government demonstration. Iran's Nissan crude oil was about 4 million 200 thousand barrels, while the crude oil price at that time had hardly changed.

Why did similar events trigger different reactions in the market? The news is a test of the disk. This shows that the fundamentals of crude oil have changed a lot.

At present, the supply of PTA is very tight, which shows that there are not many warehouse receipts in the low position and a lot of goods in the spot market.

Moreover, the five major PTA manufacturers including Southern China, Ningbo and Tianjin will have maintenance plans in March and April, when the supply of PTA will be even more intense.

Although polyester will not become the main factor of PTA, but the tight supply of PTA, the strength of crude oil and PX will become an important factor to support the PTA price. If there is no systemic risk, PTA futures will return to the rally.

Last week, the Thailand Rubber Association said that rubber trees planted in the rubber industry began to produce latex a few years ago, and output in Thailand will increase by 10% in 2011.

At the same time, the association of natural rubber producers said that because of better weather conditions, the global output of gum will increase by 8% over the whole year.

The direction of public opinion has changed, indicating that the hot issues in the early stage of speculation are gradually weakening, and the end of the theme will also indicate the end of the market.

At present, the direction of public opinion in the market is changing imperceptibly, and the degree of favor of funds for Shanghai rubber is also gradually weakening.

The lack of funds has made it harder for the Shanghai rubber market to rise.

Demand side, along with the decline in car market sales and the emergence of synthetic rubber substitution, the potential demand for gum is also gradually declining.

In addition, the risk of policy surface has not been completely resolved. There are many uncertainties in the market. The pressure on Shanghai rubber is gradually accumulating, and the kinetic energy of upward price is gradually weakening.